Hochul Blames Trump, Money Still Flees

New data show New York lost billions in tax revenue as its share of U.S. millionaires shrank, while Governor Kathy Hochul points to Donald Trump and COVID instead of fixing Albany’s high-cost model.

Story Highlights

New York’s share of U.S. millionaires fell sharply, and tax revenue dropped by about $10.7 billion in 2022.
State data confirm millionaires changed addresses out of New York at higher rates during and after 2020.
Hochul links the slide to the 2017 federal tax law and the pandemic, deflecting from state policy choices.
Analysts debate how much taxes drive moves, but Florida and other low-tax states keep gaining.

Measured Wealth Flight, Measured Fiscal Hit

Citizens Budget Commission figures cited by multiple outlets report New York’s share of U.S. millionaires fell from near 13 percent in 2010 to under 9 percent in 2022, the largest drop of any state. Analysts tied the decline to a steep hit on personal income taxes, estimating a revenue loss of about $10.7 billion in 2022 alone. That shortfall matters because a small slice of high earners provide a large share of Albany’s budget. Fewer top filers means less fuel for programs New York promised to fund.

New York’s own Department of Taxation and Finance shows millionaires switched to out-of-state addresses at higher rates than other taxpayers. The rate peaked above six percent in 2020, eased, and stood at 2.5 percent in 2024. Almost 1,700 millionaires changed addresses to other states during 2024. These are not vague anecdotes. They are state-tracked address changes tied to tax accounts. The trend line spiked during the pandemic and has not fully returned to pre-2020 patterns.

Hochul’s Explanation Centers On Trump And COVID

Governor Kathy Hochul and allies argue that two outside shocks drove the shift. They blame the 2017 federal tax overhaul’s cap on state and local tax deductions and the pandemic’s disruption of city life. That line places the cause far from Albany’s control. It glosses over New York’s long-standing cost pressures, steep state and city income taxes, and sky-high living expenses. Those all shape where families live and invest. When budgets run tight, leaders must face those homegrown costs.

The political fight reflects a wider debate over “tax flight.” Several studies say millionaire migration is modest in normal years. One widely cited research line finds millionaires move less often than most people, suggesting taxes shift behavior only at the edges. But “at the edges” can still mean big money for states that rely on a narrow tax base. Even a small percentage loss among top earners can punch a multibillion-dollar hole in a budget built on them.

Where The Money Goes When It Leaves

Coverage of the Citizens Budget Commission findings highlights a simple point: states like Florida, Texas, and Nevada market no income tax and lighter costs, and they continue to gain wealthy households. Earlier policy warnings in New York flagged this risk years ago, noting that higher rates raise the incentive to relocate to lower-tax states. Families do not need to move far in a digital economy. One change of address can reset their tax home overnight while keeping business ties in New York.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul knows the solution: beg the millionaires to leave Florida and fund New York's plethora of social programs. pic.twitter.com/1zr8bsLO8P

— The Daily Signal (@DailySignal) July 15, 2026

Debate will continue over how much the 2017 state and local tax cap or COVID explains today’s numbers. What is not debated is the fiscal result: fewer millionaires filing in New York and less income tax paid into Albany’s coffers. That means pressure on lawmakers to either trim spending, reform taxes, or both. Blaming Washington or a past pandemic will not balance the books. Policy, not talking points, will decide if high earners come back.

What Conservatives Should Watch Next

Legislators in Albany face a clear test. Leaders can lower costs, protect public safety, and make work and investment pay. Or they can double down on high spending, heavy mandates, and culture-war messaging that ignores family budgets. The evidence shows address changes by top earners rose, billions in revenue fell, and low-tax states benefited. If New York wants those taxpayers back, it must compete on value. That starts with lower taxes, safer streets, and accountability for results.